"A couple of pieces of conventional wisdom appear to be getting shopworn. First is this notion that Treasury rates must be headed higher, due to a dearth of buyers . . . . [G]iven that the Treasury curve remains near its steepest levels ever, it should not be surprising to find increasing evidence that banks would rather lend to the government than to businesses . . . . Then there's my neighbor . . . who felt compelled to regale me on how the Standard & Poor's 500's 38.2% Fibonacci retracement marks the end of the rally from the March lows. While I'm not convinced that the move from March is anything more than a cyclic rally within a secular bear market, when neighbors . . . [start] trotting out market arcana from 13th-century Italian mathematicians, it gives me pause."

"I continue to view the first quarter of 2009 as risk assets overshooting to the downside, with the second quarter as unwinding that overshoot. Midway through the third quarter, we appear to be in the process of overshooting the second quarter's unwind. Fibonacci retracements notwithstanding, the sheer number and decibel [levels] of skeptics suggest that the cyclical overshoot may still have legs."

- Max Bublitz